2026 Freight Transport Report: Trucking Trends

02 Feb 2026 Freight Transport Report: Trucking Trends

Posted at 09:25h in Carrier Contract Negotiations, Freight Audit, Freight Bill Auditing, Freight Cost Analysis, Freight Payment, Transportation News by SSI Freight Audit & Freight Payment Experts

This 2026 freight transport report will focus on current trends in trucking. According to a recent article in Logistics Management, the 2026 freight market is entering a state of transition. Unfortunately, experts say last year’s volatility is still far from over. ¹

This post is an important read for transportation, logistics, supply chain, and operations professionals who must understand how they and their carriers will be impacted by factors that will influence the freight market. Here are four key points from this 2026 freight transport report.

1. FREIGHT DEMAND WILL BE TEPID BEFORE IMPROVING
Both freight demand and Class 8 truck orders soared in December. However, experts agree the end-of-year increases were each an anomaly. Economists see nothing on the horizon that will jump-start economic growth and in turn spark higher freight demand.

2. FREIGHT RATES WILL RISE – BUT EXPERTS DISAGREE ON HOW HIGH
Freight rates are expected to rise year-over-year in 2026. But forecasts differ regarding when this will happen and by how much rates will rise.

3. FREIGHT CARRIER UPHEAVAL WILL LEAD TO FREIGHT CAPACITY REBALANCING
Crackdowns on both non-domiciled CDL drivers and dodgy CDL providers will continue, removing tens of thousands of truck drivers from the roads. Undercapitalized carriers will exit the market as operating costs rise faster than freight rates. Smaller firms, which comprise 90% of all carriers, will be hit the hardest. Carrier capacity will slowly tighten and loads will be rebalanced among the remaining carriers.

4. INTERMODAL WILDCARD – RAILWAYS PLAN TO TAKE TRUCKLOADS OFF THE ROADS
Coast-to-coast railway service levels are improving. Plus, if the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger is approved by the Surface Transportation Board, an estimated 2 million truckloads of freight will shift from road to rail, according to the merger application.

FREIGHT DEMAND WILL BE TEPID BEFORE IMPROVING

2025’s peak retail season was the best for trucking in years, according to a fresh column from FreightWaves. ² Spot rates jumped 18.9% from mid-November to late December. Further, tender rejections reached a multi-year high. Overall, this was great news for a freight market that was desperately seeking holiday cheer.

The year-end bump was exciting – yet, it was a short-term deviation as peak-season volumes combined with severe winter weather to lift freight demand and rates.

In fact, retailers are warning of a container import hangover. Per the experts at the National Retail Federation, Q1 container-shipping import demand will be down at least 10% compared with last year.³

Yet, manufacturing is the largest driver of freight – consisting of about 60% of the for-hire carrier market. Housing construction materials are also a relevant segment for trucking firms. ⁴

So, carriers are hopeful US manufacturing orders and housing starts increase soon and then remain elevated so freight demand and the rates carriers can charge both rise. Yet, as reported in FleetOwner, a recent 2026 predictions panel of industry experts say there is nothing on the horizon that is expected to jump-start manufacturing or construction. The pundits believe persistently sluggish demand for freight is expected for the foreseeable future. ⁵

According to the recent Q1 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, truckload demand will remain flat and LTL demand growth will be limited in this quarter. ⁶

Also, Jason Miller, a noted professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University (MSU), expects freight demand will remain fairly tepid through the first half of the year. ⁷

Looking for a specific growth number? You may be sorry you asked. 2% or less – that’s the 2026 expectation for market demand growth, per Avery Vise, the VP of Trucking at FTR, a transportation intelligence company. ⁸

Even so, fleet owners went wild in December, ordering more than 42,000 Class 8 trucks – a three-year high! Did a surge of market optimism drive the truck-buying frenzy? Unfortunately, no.

Experts say the year-end truck-buying rush had much to do with fleet administrators “prebuying” trucks before potentially costly, EPA27 NOx emission-reduction improvements will be required in model year 2027 vehicles.

Further, even with the December surge, 2025 Class 8 truck orders for the year were 20% less than 2024 figures. ⁹

FREIGHT RATES WILL RISE – EXPERTS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW HIGH RATES WILL GO

Truckload freight rates are low and have been for some time. Will 2026 bring relief? FTR’s Vise says he expects freight rates will remain stagnant, increasing by only 2% (yes, about the same rate as he predicts demand to rise).

However, Vise admits his own forecast presents a paradox. A 2% rate increase is insufficient for many fleets that are facing rising costs for operations, equipment, and insurance. Put simply, a meager 2% rise in freight rates will drive more carriers out of business. That shrinking capacity, in theory, should exert more upward pressure on rates, per Vise. ¹¹

A transportation equities analyst at Morgan Stanley, Ravi Shanker, believes supply tightening will likely yield a mid-single-digit increase in truckload contract rates in 2026. His more bullish forecast calls for low-double-digit-increase, but only if unexpectedly high levels of demand add fuel to the fire. ¹²

Eager to see a more robust forecast? According to research from Prologis, a logistics real estate company, shrinking trucking capacity will drive double-digit freight hikes in 2026. ¹³

However, in the near term, according to the aforementioned Q1 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, the truckload-rate-per-mile-index forecast calls for a slight YoY increase in Q1.

LTL carriers, on the other hand, have better maintained yield discipline and capacity balance. The LTL rate per pound hit record highs in 2025, even as weight per shipments dropped. AFS experts believe LTL carriers will be able to sustain their margins, as the line-rate-per-pound index also moves slightly higher YoY. Of note, that slight rate-per-pound increase will mark the ninth consecutive quarter of YoY growth for LTL carriers. ¹⁴

FREIGHT CARRIER UPHEAVAL WILL LEAD TO FREIGHT CAPACITY REBALANCING

As we covered in our 2026 Supply Chain Report, a cost-optimization mindset is now prevalent among supply chain managers. Not surprisingly, the same thought process is common among savvy trucking leaders. We expect many carriers will be prioritizing network efficiency, equipment utilization, and liquidity protection over growth.

That’s smart, because according to the American Trucking Associations’ Chief Economist Bob Costello, the market is due for a supply-side correction. As reported by Commercial Carrier Journal, Costello delivers a direct and sobering economic warning. Tariffs, persistent stagflation, and a slowing labor market have created “absolutely unsustainable” conditions for many carriers, and the only way out, at least in the near-term, is to erase capacity from the highway. ¹⁵

In addition, a wave of US freight brokerage failures is possible in 2026, according to FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller. The current market environment, with low freight volumes and firming spot rates, “is the worst possible environment for freight brokers.”

What does this mean for shippers? Per Fuller, “shippers, may face disruptions if their brokerage partners fold, forcing them to renegotiate contracts amid rising rates influenced by tariffs and market volatility.” ¹⁶

There is another factor already impacting the freight market: strict enforcement of English-language proficiency (ELP) compliance requirements for drivers. Quite simply, the pool of available truck drivers is shrinking.

According to a report by JB Hunt, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration estimates 97% of the current 200,000 drivers with non-domiciled CDLs are likely to exit the industry in the next 1 to 3 years.

Even more eye-popping, as many as 600,000 truck drivers are at risk of losing their jobs because they are either undocumented, non-domiciled, or unable to pass ELP requirements. ¹⁷

Experts at consulting firm RSM point out that 90% of motor carriers are running fleets of fewer than 10 trucks. The proliferation of small carriers in recent years has been keeping rates low, due to their lower cost structure. Yet, small carriers may be the most impacted by the exodus of drivers.

So, RSM recommends shippers carefully vet their carriers for compliance with FMCSA and US DOT regulations. After doing so, shippers should prioritize securing long-term contracts to lock in rates and mitigate the risk of service disruptions. ¹⁸

Amid this turmoil, a 2026 trucking industry forecast published by ACT Research, indicates freight markets are showing early but tentative signs of rebalancing. Carriers continue to face severe margin pressure and some consolidation is occurring, though supply still exceeds demand.

Their research confirms, “fleet capacity is contracting as poor profitability forces exits and consolidation, especially among smaller carriers.”

ACT expects the imbalance between supply and demand to improve gradually through 2026, which may provide meaningful freight and rate recovery in the second half of the year. ¹⁹

INTERMODAL WILDCARD – RAILWAYS PLAN TO TAKE TRUCKLOADS OFF THE ROADS

Trucking companies need to be aware that railways expect to take more trailers off the road in 2026 and beyond.

In fact, if the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger occurs, more than 2 million truckloads of traffic may migrate from highways to railways, according to the merger application! ²⁰

BNSF & CSX also plan to attract more volume in 2026 as they have accelerated transit times from coast to coast. By working together, the railways boast that goods can now move from Los Angeles to New Jersey in 126 hours, which is 32 hours faster than before.

Also, BNSF & CSX have added new services from LA to destinations including Louisville, Philadelphia, and Northwest Ohio. Overall, the new five-day per week schedules are boosting speed, flexibility, and options for moving freight across the US, per a BNSF press release. ²¹

This is good news for many shippers, as intermodal freight transport typically saves on shipping costs, but sacrifices delivery speed in return.

As intermodal carriers boost speed, efficiency, and coast-to-coast convenience, they present a wildcard for truckload carriers. If millions more trailers transverse the continent via rail, carriers will face additional headwinds in their drive to raise freight rates and improve their profit margins.

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