03 Nov 2026 GRI Impact Analysis – Learn How to Mitigate Parcel, Freight General Rate Increases
A 2026 GRI impact analysis from SSI is an indispensable service available to supply chain, operations, logistics, transportation, and finance executives. Our solution answers the crucial question: How much is this GRI really going to cost me?
At SSI, our experts provide straight answers so you gain accurate insights on how each of your parcel, trucking, ocean and air-freight carrier’s general rate increase will impact your 2026 freight spend.
Some shippers interpret a GRI to be an average rate increase. However, the vast array of fees, surcharges, zone charges and other accessorials that carriers tack on makes it increasingly difficult for shippers to know the actual impact of these costs. Many intelligent people will make the mistake of underestimating how the 2026 general rate increases will jolt their budget.
While most high-volume shippers have carrier contracts, the discounts they receive are often negotiated off of the annual GRI. Further, on January 5, 2026 FedEx is increasing the minimum charge for lightweight shipments to $11.99, which nullifies some discounts. Whatever you are paying now, you can be sure all of your carriers are planning to raise your rates next year.
Contact SSI to get a real-world understanding of how higher rates from each of your carriers will affect your 2026 freight spend. Well informed and equipped with data insights, you can negotiate terms based on your own business needs, not the carrier’s. SSI also offers professional carrier contract negotiation services which will save you time and maximize your savings.
2026 GRI IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR PARCEL SHIPPERS
Rising parcel shipping costs have become a massive headache for shippers who don’t negotiate discounts. As reported by Logistics Management, the FedEx package standard list rates for U.S., U.S. export, and U.S. import services will increase by approximately 5.9% next year.
The 2026 GRI marks the 5th year in a row FedEx has increased its GRI by 5.9% or more. As in most years, UPS is expected to match the 5.9% GRI.
Parcel surcharges, such as residential delivery, delivery area, oversized, extra handling, and others fees will also cost you more. In fact, it’s not uncommon for surcharges to add about 30% to the shipment cost.1
Perhaps the most glaring example of surcharge inflation is the fuel surcharge. While gas and diesel prices have remained steady or declined in the past year, domestic ground shippers have experienced a cumulative increase in fuel surcharges of 30% or more. Parcel experts believe the fuel surcharge has transitioned from a cost-recovery tool to a revenue tool that now serves primarily to pad parcel-carrier profits. 2
As mentioned in a previous SSI post, you may have noticed in the first half of 2025, it became more difficult to secure discounts from FedEx and UPS. That’s because both carriers pivoted from growing market share to attracting customers who yielded the most healthy carrier profit margins. 3
Fortunately for many shippers, that dynamic has changed. Persistent low demand has driven discounting to unprecedented levels, with carriers offering heavier discounts to more types of customers and on more line items – including surcharges. For those who negotiate discounts effectively, the net effect may negate the impact of various surcharge increases and actually reduce overall parcel shipping costs.4
For your convenience, we are providing links to the latest published U.S. shipping rate changes by FedEx and UPS. However, the details are a lot to absorb and are difficult to analyze.
That’s why you need support from our team of veteran parcel experts. First, we can provide clarity for you with a detailed parcel cost impact analysis. Then we can help you negotiate the best-available discounts for your business. Contact SSI to learn more.
2026 GRI IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR LTL & TRUCKLOAD SHIPPERS
As reported in a recent edition of the monthly Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), transportation prices are escalating at a decreasing rate. September recorded the lowest rate of monthly price growth in 17 months. While a majority of supply chain managers surveyed by the LMI still expect prices to move higher in 2026, those expectations are dampening.5
Further, according to a fresh State of Freight update from CNBC, current transportation sector data indicates conditions typically associated with a US freight recession.6 If this trend continues, trucking firms may encounter resistance if they push rates much higher in 2026.
While many freight carriers announce their 2026 GRIs in November or December, a growing number of firms are implementing GRIs throughout the year.
For example, ArcBest announced a 5.9% GRI for its less-than-truckload (LTL) services the first week of August.7 The timing was either fortuitous or a savvy move by the carrier, as it coincided with the tail-end of this summer’s early peak season.
Even without robust demand, many LTL carriers have been successful in making their freight rate increases stick. The LTL trucking segment has shown strict pricing discipline to maintain their yields in a challenging market. In fact, in every quarter of 2025, rates have risen slightly YoY, per the Q4 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index.8
The upward pricing trend for LTL shipping is expected to continue in 2026 unless economic conditions cause a capacity surplus due to low demand.
Truckload carriers are stuck in a prolonged environment of low demand and excess capacity. Linehaul cost per shipment has recorded seven consecutive quarters with a YoY decline. Experts believe a floor has been hit and truckload rates per mile are likely to remain low.9
What this means to you is that after your truckload carriers announce their next GRI, they may be open to negotiating discounts for 2026 contracts. They very much need to hold onto your business. Yet, don’t expect truckload carriers to be willing to slash their freight rates. After years of operating with weak demand, few will be willing or able to operate at a loss in 2026.
Whenever your LTL and truckload carriers announce their GRIs, let’s talk. We can provide you precise figures on how each of your carrier’s proposed rates will impact your business.
2026 GRI IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPERS
A cloud of uncertainty will continue to hang over US trade in 2026, according to recent economic analysis by Carsten Brzeski, the Global Head of Macro at ING Research. Brezki believes the risk of escalating trade tensions and tariffs between the US and its trading partners is likely to remain high, which will have detrimental effects on a host of industries.
“For businesses, the uncertainty is paralyzing. The lack of clarity around tariff policy discourages long-term investment and complicates supply chain planning. Even if some tariffs are eventually rolled back, the broader message is clear: trade policy will remain a volatile and politically charged arena for the foreseeable future.”10
Meanwhile, trade in the rest of the world remains strong. That’s per DP World’s group chairman and chief executive, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem. DP World is one of the largest port operators on the planet, with more than 60 ports and terminals across the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Americas.
From his unique vantage point, Bin Sulayem sees global trade humming, with many goods that would normally be shipped to the US simply being shifted to other markets.11
Amid strong global demand, maritime carriers are expected to successfully make their 2026 GRI’s stick. US shippers may have room to negotiate, since transpacific trade lane volume and spot rates have been declining since their summer peak.
Yet, carriers have already been blanking some sailings to reduce capacity and help prop up Asia-to-West Coast rates. If global trade is robust elsewhere, some ships may be re-routed to where demand is highest. If so, that will hamper the ability of US importers to negotiate big discounts.
Regarding air cargo, global demand has held steady in 2025. All origin regions of the world are recording YoY volume growth and rates have been trending up slightly through the first nine months of 2025, per a recent article in Air Cargo News.12
Demand from Asia to the US was strong in the first half of the year, as supply chain managers frontloaded orders to beat higher tariffs and fees. Much like with ocean shipping, it appears some air freight is simply shifting to other destinations. For example, Q3 intra-Asia demand increased more than 10% compared to last year.13
With the air cargo sector experiencing higher global demand, US shippers are unlikely to see notable freight rate relief from international air cargo leaders, such as FedEx and UPS. However, airlines may be more amenable to providing competitive rates, especially if they consistently have flights with plenty of extra belly space available.
If you need help determining how 2026 GRIs for international shipments will impact your freight spend, we can help. Contact SSI.
ABOUT SSI
A FedEx-certified freight bill audit & payment (FBAP) service provider, SSI serves the needs of supply chain, operations, logistics, shipping and finance executives. We transform the complexity of global FBAP into cash savings and supply chain intelligence, providing actionable insights to maximize your profit potential.
See our recent blog posts to discover other money-saving services available from SSI.
- Freight bill audit & payment
- 2025 parcel peak season demand surcharges
- Parcel cost management
- International freight payment
- Do it yourself cross-border payments
- Freight data analytics
- Freight rate benchmarking
Want to learn more? Our team is eager to help you save money. Contact SSI.
Footnotes:
1. Jeff Berman, “FedEx announces 2026 rate increases“. September 16, 2025, as published by Logistics Management.
2, 3. Eric Kulisch, “FedEx and UPS cease parcel discounts, ‘weaponize’ fuel surcharges: report“. July 18, 2025, as published by FreightWaves.
4, 8, 9. TD Cowen/AFS, “Unprecedented parcel discounting, truckload and LTL rates hold steady: Q4 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index”. October 15, 2026, as published by AFS.
5. Zac Rogers, Ph.D., “September 2025 Logistics Managers’ Index Report”. October 7, 2025, as published by The Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI).
6. Lori Ann LaRocco, “State of Freight: September, typical boom month for shipping, looks more like freight recession this year“. October 7, 2025, as published by CNBC.
7. David Taube, “ArcBest ups LTL rates by 5.9%“. August 7, 2025, as published by Trucking Dive.
10. Carsten Brzeski, “Trade update: a risk of higher, not lower, tariffs“. September 11, 2025, as published by the THINK economic and financial analysis research team at ING.
11. Paul Berger, “Global Ports Leader Sees Trade Shifting, Not Slowing“. September 24, 2025, as published by The Wall Street Journal.
12, 13. Rebecca Jeffrey, “Air cargo rates down in Q3 but steady“. October 6, 2025, as published by Air Cargo News.
SSI blog post entitled: 2026 GRI impact analysis – learn how to mitigate parcel and freight general rates increases.